Stock market today: Nasdaq wavers, S&P 500 and Dow climb ahead of Fed decision, Big Tech earnings

Yahoo Finance’s Jake Conley reports:

Access to power has emerged as one of the greatest bottlenecks for the AI build-out, with a particular focus on natural gas, which is cheap and abundant in the US.

Anthropic’s S-1 filing proves natural gas is “an AI vertical,” Melius Research managing director James West said.

“We know power is a constraint to AI and Anthropic’s S-1 filing did nothing to assuage that view,” West wrote to clients on Tuesday. “AI compute is a natural gas demand story.”

Power-intensive data centers are the backbone of the AI build-out. US electricity demand from data centers is expected to double from 2025 to 2027, per research from Goldman Sachs, after 20 years of roughly stagnant energy grid expansion in the US.

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Nelson Peltz’s Trian Partners has reportedly offered $1.4 billion to buy the struggling fast food giant, according to the Wall Street Journal. Wendy’s shares rose 15% in premarket trading on the news.

Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports:

After nearly two years of struggles competing with the likes of behemoths McDonald’s (MCD) and Yum! Brands’ (YUM) Taco Bell, plus upstarts such as Shake Shack (SHAK), Wendy’s is on the cusp of a large number of restaurant closures.

“With one of its largest franchisees filing bankruptcy in September (although contested by WEN given prior termination of franchise agreement), we think investors likely expect closures to tick higher than expected, but we admit visibility on our side remains somewhat limited and there could still be a range of outcomes,” veteran restaurant analyst Andy Barish warned in a recent note. “That said, given our view that there are likely additional franchise operators in the system facing challenges with leveraged balance sheets, higher interest rates and profitability pressures from higher beef, labor & build costs (like many others in QSR), we think it is prudent to moderate our development estimates and bake in more potential closures over the next 6-12 months, as the company works to strengthen its system.”

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Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger previews what to expect and look for in the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and press conference on Wednesday afternoon:

The Federal Reserve heads into its interest-rate decision this week facing hotter inflation, keeping the meeting live even as markets widely expect the central bank to hold interest rates steady just days before the midterm elections.

Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chair and a Princeton University economics professor, is expecting a “hawkish pause.”

Although Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh doesn’t favor telegraphing the central bank’s next move, Blinder said the moment calls for clarity.

“This is a perfect time for clear forward guidance that doesn’t quite say, but strongly hints, we’re pausing now, but we stand ready to raise again and even give a hint that the next meeting might be the next interest rate hike.”

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Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre writes:

The stock market’s favorite season starts Monday. For decades, November through April has beaten the rest of the year by a mile.

That’s the Halloween indicator, also called the “best six months” or “sell in May.” Buy stocks at the end of October, hold them through April, then step aside for the summer.

Yale Hirsch found the pattern in 1986. “You can divide the year into two sections and have practically all the gains in one six-month section and very little in the other,” his son Jeffrey Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, wrote in the 2026 edition.

Since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has gained an average of about 7% from November through April, versus less than 1% from May through October, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Put $10,000 into only the good half each year, and it grew to about $1.3 million. Put it into only the bad half, and it shrank to about $4,300.

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Economic data: FOMC rate decision; MBA mortgage applications, week ended Oct. 23 (-5.3% prior); Advance goods trade balance, September (-$130.5 billion expected, -$132.1 billion prior); Retail inventories, month-on-month, September (+0.2% prior); Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, September preliminary reading (+0.4% expected, +0.5% prior)

Earnings calendar: Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), GE Vernova (GEV), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Amphenol Corporation (APH), ServiceNow (NOW), T-Mobile US (TMUS), UBS Group AG (UBS), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Equinor ASA (EQNR), Phillips 66 (PSX), Vertiv Holdings (VRT), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), American Electric Power Company (AEP), Boston Scientific (BSX), TE Connectivity (TEL), Deutsche Bank (DB), Garmin (GRMN), eBay (EBAY), Honeywell Aerospace (HONA), United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), Ford Motor Company (F), Carvana (CVNA), Biogen (BIIB), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC), Raymond James Financial (RJF)

Catch up on some top stories you might have missed overnight:

Oil prices rise after attack on Saudi Arabian refinery reignites supply concerns

Wall Street lines up $21 billion in debt for Broadcom chip deal

Robinhood stock falls 7% after earnings miss despite record trading volumes

Higher prices could stick around into 2027, economists say

Google heads into earnings with Meta’s Muse on its mind

Reuters reports:

Investors have long treated the US dollar as a refuge when markets fall, but foreign money chasing returns from the AI boom could weaken that safe-haven role if the trade unwinds.

Foreign capital has poured in to US mega-cap equities, hyperscaler corporate bonds and power-grid infrastructure. That has made the dollar an increasingly crowded ‌bet on American exceptionalism, backed by faster growth, higher yields and persistent foreign demand for US assets.

But if the AI narrative stumbles, the dollar’s safe-haven status could collide with its growing ‌role as a risk-sensitive asset owned increasingly by price-sensitive investors. A sustained selloff in stocks could lead investors to sell US assets, potentially drowning out the safe-haven demand for the currency.

If the AI trade unwinds, “it’s not as clear the dollar benefits in the ​same way it would have done in the past,” said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura.

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