-
Mike Clay
Multiple Authors
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 6, which kicked off Thursday night with a game between the Seahawks and Broncos.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start advice, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.
-
DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are provided only for Sunday’s main slate, which is why there are no values for games scheduled on days other than Sunday after 1 p.m. ET.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Latest chart update: Friday 10:22 p.m. ET)
HOU-JAX | CHI-ATL | BAL-CLE | TEN-IND | NYJ-NE | NO-NYG
CAR-PHI | PIT-TB| ARI-LAR| LAC-KC | BUF-LV| DAL-GB | WAS-SF
Projected Score: Jaguars 25, Texans 20
Lineup locks: Bhayshul Tuten, Nico Collins, Parker Washington
Fantasy Scoop: Over the past three weeks, Brenton Strange easily leads the Jaguars in targets with 21. Strange’s season got off to a slow start (7-72-1 on 10 targets during Weeks 1-3), but he has been targeted exactly eight times in each of his past two games, which has resulted in receiving lines of 7-95-0 and 7-68-0.
The boost in usage is enough to launch Strange into the streaming conversation, but we don’t want to get too carried away about a player in a crowded offense who averaged just 5.0 targets and 9.8 fantasy PPG last season. He’s a risky Week 6 start against a Houston defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points (and zero TDs) to tight ends this season.
Over/Under: 44.5 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 66% (8th highest)
Projected Score: Falcons 26, Bears 23
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Drake London, Luther Burden III
Fantasy Scoop: Rome Odunze handled a season-high nine targets on Sunday. The result? An ugly 3-40-0 receiving line and 5.0 fantasy points — his fourth game under 7.5 fantasy points this season. Odunze is tough to trust right now, but there are some reasons for optimism. For starters, Caleb Williams has a chance to return this week after a three-week absence. Additionally, after being limited due to health to open the season, Odunze has returned to an every-down role, handling a healthy 23% target share in consecutive games. In Week 4, that resulted in 94 yards on six catches.
For the season, Odunze sits third among receivers in snaps and remains a factor near the goal line with three end zone targets. Consider Odunze to be a WR3 in a terrific Week 6 matchup against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the third-most catches and sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Through five games, seven wide receivers have scored 14.5-plus fantasy points against Atlanta.
Over/Under: 49.1 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 60% (10th highest)
Projected Score: Ravens 27, Browns 20
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Denzel Boston
Fantasy Scoop: Boston looks like the real deal and should be locked into lineups this week after a strong start to the season. The rookie has played on 91% of Cleveland’s snaps and handled a solid 20% of targets resulting in a hefty 45% of air yards. He sits tied for second in the NFL with five end zone targets. Boston’s usage has resulted in three touchdowns and four games with 12.9-plus fantasy points. Though Boston’s usage has been good, he very well could be in for even more targets with KC Concepcion expected to miss this game.
Consider Boston to be a WR3 against a Baltimore defense that has surrendered the sixth-most catches and fifth-most yards to receivers this season. The opposing team’s No. 1 receiver has scored 18-plus fantasy points in four consecutive games against the Ravens.
Over/Under: 47.1 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 76% (5th highest)
Projected Score: Colts 25, Titans 17
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Carnell Tate, Tyler Warren
Fantasy Scoop: Tony Pollard is off to a predictably pedestrian start to the 2026 season, averaging just 8.7 fantasy points per game. The veteran back’s role has been as expected. He has handled 70% of Tennessee’s called runs and 8% of the targets while splitting backfield snaps near evenly with Tyjae Spears. Pollard has also been a bit unlucky in the TD department; he has scored only once despite an expected total (3.5) that ranks in the top 20 at the position.
Pollard’s minimal receiving production (24 yards on 11 targets) is a problem, but solid rushing volume and a good matchup — the Colts have allowed the third-most yards and sixth-most fantasy points to RBs — in a Week 6 with four teams on a bye does position him as a palatable RB2 option.
Over/Under: 41.3 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 77% (4th highest)
Projected Score: Patriots 25, Jets 17
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
Fantasy Scoop: Welcome back, Mr. Maye. We missed you. After totaling one TD and six INTs while failing to eclipse 208 passing yards or 9.8 fantasy points in any of his first three games of the season, Maye easily led all quarterbacks in fantasy points over the past two weeks. Maye’s 39.5-point effort on Sunday was by far the best of his career and was fueled by 374 passing yards, 25 rushing yards and five total touchdowns.
Matchups seem to be the clear culprit to Maye’s slow start, as his Week 1-3 opponents all rank among the eight stingiest in QB fantasy points allowed, whereas his Weeks 4 and 5 opponents were both among the six most generous. Maye, who ranked second among QBs in fantasy PPG last season, has a bit of a tough schedule moving forward, including this week against a New York defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest QB fantasy points. The Jets have also allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards and rank third with 17 sacks. Plus, no QB has reached 20 points against them this season.
A return to those early-week results is in the realm of possibility, but Maye’s skill level and dual-threat ability are enough to still consider him a midrange QB1 this week.
Shadow Alert: Christian Gonzalez vs. Garrett Wilson
Over/Under: 42.0 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 75% (6th highest)
Projected Score: Giants 28, Saints 22
Lineup locks: Cam Skattebo, Chris Olave, Malik Nabers, Devaughn Vele, Isaiah Likely
Fantasy Scoop: Jameis Winston has found his way into the streaming conversation after posting two consecutive top-12 fantasy outings. Winston threw three touchdowns in both games and added some value with his legs (27 yards) this past Sunday. Winston certainly took advantage of two great matchups (Arizona, Washington) and he is set up with a solid matchup again this week. The Saints have posted the seventh-worst EPA against the pass and have allowed a 71% completion rate (fourth highest).
Winston is no stranger to fantasy production (19.6 PPG in his past 11 full games), so while boom/bust production is to be expected, there are worse options for those eyeing a bye-week replacement.
Over/Under: 49.8 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Giants 73% (7th highest)
Projected Score: Panthers 24, Eagles 22
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Coker, Dallas Goedert
Fantasy Scoop: Darius Cooper has scored three touchdowns in two games since replacing the injured Smith in the Philadelphia offense. Cooper produced 15-plus fantasy points in both games while playing on a healthy 87% of offensive snaps. Despite the strong production, Cooper remains a risky fantasy option — even if Smith is once again out. The 2025 UDFA handled a healthy seven targets (28% share) in Week 4, but was limited to only 33 yards on three catches. Last week, he was targeted only three times (8% share).
The Eagles’ offense is struggling badly (30th in EPA), and although Carolina is missing both of its starting perimeter corners, this is a defense that has allowed only one WR touchdown this season, with none reaching 16.5 fantasy points. If Smith returns, Cooper can be sent to the waiver wire. If Smith remains out, Cooper will be no more than a risky flex dart throw.
Over/Under: 45.7 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Panthers 58% (11th highest)
BREAKING NEWS: QB Jalen Hurts has been ruled OUT due to a blood clot. Projections have been updated. For more on what Hurts’ absence means for the Eagles and for potential quarterback streaming options see Fantasy Football Buzz.
Projected Score: Steelers 20, Buccaneers 19
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, Bucky Irving, DK Metcalf
Fantasy Scoop: With Michael Pittman Jr. (IR) and Roman Wilson (injured after just one target on Sunday) sidelined, Germie Bernard was vaulted into an every-down role opposite Metcalf in Week 5. The second-round rookie paced the Steelers in both routes (32) and targets (nine), which allowed him a healthy 6-80-0 receiving line. Despite playing a limited role thus far, Bernard has now seen at least eight targets in two of his five NFL games.
Pittman and Wilson will both be sidelined this week, which sets up Bernard for another big workload against a Tampa Bay defense that has been solid against the pass but has still allowed 20-plus fantasy points to three different receivers. Consider the rookie to be a sneaky WR3 in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that has scored a league-high 91% of its touchdowns this season through the air.
Over/Under: 39.4 (lowest)
Win Probability: Steelers 55% (13th highest)
Projected Score: Rams 34, Cardinals 19
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride
Fantasy Scoop: Jeremiyah Love sits 19th among running backs in snaps this season, but that usage hasn’t led to much fantasy success. The No. 3 pick in April’s draft seemed to be on the verge of a breakout when he produced 109 yards and one TD on 26 touches in Week 3, but he has failed to clear either 15 touches or 55 yards in any of his other four games. That includes a rough Week 5 in which he was held to 22 yards on 12 touches against a struggling Detroit defense.
As if efficiency issues (3.7 YPC, 2.6 YPT) aren’t enough of a concern, Love’s passing volume has dwindled (12 targets in Weeks 1-3, but only two total in Weeks 4-5). Love’s combination of talent and workload are enough to keep him in the flex mix this week against a Rams defense that allowed 118 yards and two TDs to James Cook III on Monday night.
Shadow Alert: Trent McDuffie vs. Michael Wilson
Over/Under: 52.6 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 93% (highest)
Projected Score: Chiefs 30, Chargers 15
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
Fantasy Scoop: A total of 28 quarterbacks will start this football weekend, and you can make a strong case that Justin Herbert is ranked 28th among them as a fantasy option. You might be thinking, “What about Cam Ward?” or “He can’t be worse than Geno Smith!” So perhaps you’d be shocked to learn that Herbert has scored fewer fantasy points than either of them this season. In fact, Herbert, who has yet to deliver a single top-20 fantasy outing, sits just 1.3 points ahead of Jameis Winston (3½ games played) and a mere 8.7 points ahead of Caleb Williams (1½ games played).
Herbert’s rushing production (QB6 in carries and QB7 in yards) has carried over from 2025, but he’s averaging a poor 187.4 passing yards per game. He has thrown exactly one TD in all five outings and has a league-high seven INTs. Incredibly, Herbert’s struggles have come against the second-easiest schedule for quarterbacks so far this season, and his slate ranks fourth hardest the rest of the way. It kicks off this week against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest QB fantasy points, despite having faced the fifth-most passing attempts. Ouch!
Over/Under: 44.9 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 93% (2nd highest)
Projected Score: Bills 32, Raiders 29
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Ashton Jeanty, James Cook III, DJ Moore, Brock Bowers
Fantasy Scoop: Michael Mayer was held to just a pair of yards on his lone target during Sunday’s loss to New England. It was a quick reminder that the 2023 second-round pick is a long shot for consistent fantasy output when Bowers is healthy. Mayer did produce a strong 8-82-0 receiving line on 10 targets in Week 4, but he failed to clear 32 yards in his other four games this season — two of which came with Bowers sidelined. The 25-year-old is more valuable to the Raiders than he is to fantasy managers. He’s best left on the waiver wire against Buffalo.
Over/Under: 61.0 (highest)
Win Probability: Bills 57% (12th highest)
Projected Score: Cowboys 28, Packers 28
Lineup locks: Jordan Love, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, George Pickens, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy Scoop: Love is the streaming quarterback you want in Week 6. The veteran QB has benefited from Green Bay shifting to a pass-heavy attack (the third-heaviest, to be exact), which has helped him register 1,408 passing yards (third most) and 10 passing scores (fifth). Love has thrown exactly two passing TDs in all five games and ranks eighth in QB fantasy points despite offering less than nothing with his legs (minus-2 yards on seven carries).
That lack of rushing will limit Love’s fantasy output at times, but the good news is that he’s set to shift from one of the league’s hardest schedules through five weeks to one of the easiest moving forward. That includes this week against a Dallas defense that has zero INTs, only five sacks, and the worst EPA against the pass. The Cowboys have also allowed 10 passing TDs and the fifth-most QB fantasy points.
Over/Under: 55.6 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 52% (lowest)
Projected Score: 49ers 32, Commanders 21
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Jayden Daniels, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle
Fantasy Scoop: Daniels returned from injury in Week 5, delivering the second-best fantasy performance (32.3) of his career and his first game with more than 22 points since Week 17 of 2024. Daniels wasn’t especially productive through the air (199 yards, zero TDs), but dominated with his legs (9-103-2). Incredibly, he currently sits second among all quarterbacks in rushing yards this season (203) despite missing 2½ games.
Daniels’ dual-threat ability has him right back in the midrange QB1 mix, though he’ll need more passing production to get back into the elite conversation. He hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in any game since Week 6 of last season. Daniels should be downgraded a bit this week against a San Francisco defense that has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt (third lowest) and the sixth-fewest QB fantasy points.
Over/Under: 52.7 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 86% (3rd highest)
